FOREIGN TRADE AND IMPORT PRICES - AUGUST 2023

In August 2023, quarterly growth is estimated for both foreign trade flows, more intense for exports (+5.1%) than imports (+3.8%). The month-on-month increase in exports is due to the increase in sales to both EU (+3.5%) and non-EU (+6.9%) areas.

In the June-August 2023 quarter, compared to the previous one, exports recorded a slight increase (+0.3%), imports a decrease of 2.0%.

In August 2023, exports grew year-on-year by 2.5% in monetary terms (from -7.7% in July) and by 3.4% in volume. The growth in exports in value is the result of an increase of 8.9% for non-EU markets and a contraction of 3.7% for the EU area. Imports recorded a year-on-year decline of 20.9% in value, much larger for the non-EU area (-32.6%) than for the EU (-6.6%); In terms of volume, the reduction was limited (-2.3%).

Among the sectors that contribute most to the year-on-year growth of exports are: means of transport, excluding motor vehicles (+55.4%), machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.) (+11.8%), food, beverages and tobacco (+6.3%) and motor vehicles (+18.5%). Exports of base metals and metal products, excluding machinery and equipment (-11.1%), chemicals and products (-12.9%) and coke and refined petroleum products (-8.0%), declined year-on-year.

On an annual basis, the countries that make the largest contributions to the increase in exports are: the United States (+34.0%), OPEC countries (+14.7%) and Switzerland (+8.0%). Exports to Germany (-3.9%), the United Kingdom (-8.7%) and France (-4.1%) decreased.

In the first eight months of 2023, exports recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, to which higher sales of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (+11.2%), motor vehicles (+26.0%), food, beverages and tobacco (+7.6%), means of transport, excluding motor vehicles (+10.1%) and pharmaceutical, chemical-medical and botanical articles (+7.3%) contributed in particular.

The estimated trade balance in August 2023 is +2,070 million euros (it was -9,508 million in August 2022). The energy deficit (-€4,541 million) was reduced to almost a third of the value recorded a year earlier (-€11,836 million), while the surplus in trade in non-energy products increased from €2,329 million in August 2022 to €6,612 million in August 2023.

In August 2023, import prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 12.7% year-on-year (from -11.4% in July).

Commentary

After the decline in July, exports in August marked a quarterly increase that concerns both EU and non-EU areas, and is mainly due to higher exports of energy, non-durable consumer goods and capital goods (which are also affected by the sale of maritime navigation equipment). Imports are also increasing again on a monthly basis. In trend terms, exports are growing again in both value and volume, driven by sales to non-EU markets, while those to the EU area confirm the negative trend underway since April 2023, involving important trading partners such as Germany. Imports declined year-on-year for the sixth month in a row.For import prices, the
negative economic trend continued and the trend decline widened further, still mainly driven by trends in the prices of energy and intermediate goods

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