EXTRA EU FOREIGN TRADE - AUGUST 2023

In September 2023, trade with non-EU27 countries is estimated to have decreased cyclically for both flows, larger for exports (-6.9%) than for imports (-2.1%).

The month-on-month contraction in exports is explained by lower sales of capital goods (-12.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (-9.3%). On the other hand, exports of durable consumer goods (+6.5%) and energy (+2.5%) increased; those of intermediate goods were almost stationary (+0.2%). On the import side, excluding energy (+8.5%), there were quarterly reductions for all groups; The most marked were capital goods (-9.0%) and durable consumer goods (-8.7%).

In the third quarter of 2023, compared to the previous quarter, exports grew by 0.5%, due to higher sales of energy (+19.5%) and capital goods (+1.5%). In the same period, imports fell by 4.4%, to which the decrease in purchases of intermediate goods (-11.4%) contributed significantly.

In September 2023, exports fell year-on-year by 7.2% (from +8.9% in August). The decrease was due to the reduction in sales of intermediate goods (-12.8%), non-durable consumer goods (-11.9%) and durable goods (-7.5%). Imports recorded a sharp contraction (-32.3%), generalized and broader for energy (-49.7%) and intermediate goods (-26.2%).

In September 2023, the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive and amounted to +2,780 million (-5,430 million in September 2022). The energy deficit (-€5,493 million) more than halved compared to a year earlier (-€12,096 million) while the surplus in trade in non-energy products, amounting to €8,273 million, is high and up compared to September 2022 (+€6,666 million).

In September 2023, there were year-on-year reductions in exports to almost all major non-EU27 partner countries; the largest are China (-14.0%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%), OPEC countries (-12.1%) and the United States (-11.9%). On the other hand, sales to MERCOSUR countries (+4.0%) and Japan (+2.2%) increased.

Except for the United States (+14.4%), imports from all major non-EU27 partner countries are down sharply year-on-year. Purchases from Russia recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-86.2%); Purchases from OPEC countries (-36.4%), ASEAN countries (-36.3%) and China (-34.4%) were also marked.

ANALYSIS

After the increase in August, exports to non-EU countries recorded a large cyclical downturn in September. However, this trend was affected by the occasional high-impact transactions (shipbuilding) recorded in the previous month, net of which the decline was reduced to -2.2%. On average for the third quarter of 2023, the economic momentum is slightly positive.