CONSUMER PRICES - SEPTEMBER 2023

In September 2023, the national consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC), gross of tobacco, is estimated to have increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year, from +5.4% in the previous month, confirming the preliminary estimate.

The slight deceleration in the inflation rate was mainly due to the year-on-year slowdown in prices of Unprocessed food (from +9.2% to +7.7%), processed food (from +10.0% to +8.9%), durable goods (from +4.6% to +4.0%) and, to a lesser extent, non-durable goods (from +5.2% to +4.7%), semi-durable goods (from +2.9% to +2.4%) and services related to housing (from +3.9% to +3.7%). These effects were only partially offset by an acceleration in prices of non-regulated energy products (from +5.7% to +7.6%), a smaller decline in prices of regulated energy products in September (from -29.6% to -27.9%) and an increase in the pace of growth in prices of services related to transport (from +1.2% to +3.8%).

Core inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food slowed down again (from +4.8% to +4.6%), as did inflation excluding energy (from +5.0% in August to +4.8%).

The year-on-year growth of prices of goods weakened (from +6.3% to +6.0%), while that of services increased (from +3.6% to +4.1%), bringing the inflationary differential between the services and goods sectors to -1.9 percentage points, from -2.7 in August.

Prices of Food, household and personal care products slowed down (from +9.4% to +8.1%) and those of products with high purchase frequency (from +6.9% to +6.6%).

The quarterly growth of the index was mainly due to the increase in prices of both regulated (+2.4%) and non-regulated (+1.6%), unprocessed food (+0.6%), semi-durable goods and recreational, cultural and personal care services (+0.5% each) and miscellaneous services (+0.3%); These effects were partly offset by the fall in prices of services related to transport (-1.7%).

Acquired inflation for 2023 is +5.7% for the general index and +5.2% for the core component.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 1.7% on a monthly basis, also due to the end of the summer sales which the NIC does not take into account, and by 5.6% on an annual basis (accelerating from +5.5% in August); The preliminary estimate was +5.7%.

The national consumer price index for blue-collar and white-collar households (FOI), excluding tobacco, recorded a quarterly increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1%.

In the third quarter of 2023, the impact of inflation, as measured by the HICP, is larger on households with less spending power than on those with higher spending levels (+6.7% and +5.6% respectively). However, compared to the previous quarter, the slowdown in inflation is more pronounced for the first of the two groups.

Commentary

In September, inflation slowed further, albeit slightly, to +5.3%. The further decline in the inflation rate was affected by the trend in food prices, whose year-on-year growth fell significantly, although remained relatively marked (+8.4%). On the other hand, a brake on the return of inflation is due to the rekindling of tensions on the prices of Energy products – in particular in the non-regulated sector, which brings the trend dynamics of the sector back to positive values – but also to the acceleration of prices of Transport Services. Finally, the year-on-year growth in "shopping cart" prices eased, reaching +8.1% in September.

FDT CONSULTING