CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE - SEPTEMBER 2023

In September 2023, both consumer confidence (from 106.5 to 105.4) and the composite business confidence index, which fell from 106.7 to 104.9, are estimated to decrease.

Among the component series of the consumer confidence index, negative signals emerge from the variables referring to the general economic situation, while there is greater heterogeneity among the variables referring to the personal situation. These changes are summarised by the four indicators calculated monthly from the same components: the economic climate, the current climate and the future climate decreased, respectively, from 121.5 to 115.2, from 101.4 to 100.2 and from 114.1 to 113.2; On the other hand, the personal climate increased from 101.5 to 102.2.

With reference to companies, a reduction in the confidence index is estimated for all the sectors surveyed, with the exception of construction. More specifically, the confidence index fell in manufacturing from 97.7 to 96.4, in services from 103.5 to 100.5 and in trade from 108.7 to 107.3. In construction, the index rose slightly to 160.9 from 160.2.

As for the components of the confidence indexes, in manufacturing and services all the variables worsened. In the retail sector, sales assessments deteriorated markedly, while sales expectations declined slightly in the face of falling inventories. As far as construction is concerned, assessments of construction orders/plans are optimistic, while employment expectations at the company are negative.

Based on the assessments provided by entrepreneurs on the conditions of access to bank credit, conditions are estimated to worsen in the third quarter of 2023.

Analysis

In September, the decline in the business confidence index extends to all sectors of activity, with the exception of construction. The overall index stands at the same value as in October 2022.

The consumer confidence index fell for the third month in a row, reaching its lowest value since last June. There has been a marked deterioration in assessments of the general economic situation, an increase in unemployment expectations and an improvement in assessments of the family's financial situation.

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